Application of cumulative prospect theory to joint optimization of quality and maintenance under uncertain probability

doi:10.16731/j.cnki.1671-3133.2017.12.006

Abstract

Abstract: The joint optimization of equipment uncertainty degradation and quality fluctuation is studied.Since quality fluctuation is random,Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate qualified product probability first.Then,constructed equipment degradation and nonconforming rate of quality cost is discussed.According to the maintenance decision’s gain and loss functions,the maximum cumulative prospect theory value as the maintenance time threshold is adopted.At last,the probability and reference point,the penalty value which influence on decision making the scheme are discussed.To compare its effective,compared it with the expected utility theory,the case study shows that the prospect theory can better define the maintenance time threshold.

Key words: condition based maintenance, prospect theory, quality

CLC Number:

F273.4
TJ07

Fang Yexiang, Tang Wencheng, Jiang Nanyun, Fan Shuhai, Qian Qing, Wu Shun, Yang Qi. Application of cumulative prospect theory to joint optimization of quality and maintenance under uncertain probability[J]. Modern Manufacturing Engineering, 2017, 447(12): 30-37.

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